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Investor Tool Kit

Companies that trade on the stock exchange have the persona they've hit the big leagues. But there are reasons why companies become publicly traded and they don't all work for naive investors.

Let's look at how the stock market functions so we have context for public vs. private markets. Think of a stock exchange as a shopping mall where all possibilities can be found in one place. It's organized and convenient with the benefit of oversight through securities laws and exchange rules. Associated with the listing is a distribution network known simply as the investment industry where investment dealers work with companies to raise capital through their base of Investment Advisors.

In theory, the primary reason companies go public is to raise capital.

Advantages of going public

Attract talent by offering an added pay incentive through a share purchase plan.

Increase enterprise value through the valuation mark up associated with publicly traded companies. The average multiple in the stock market is approx. fourteen meaning the stock reflects a price that is fourteen times earnings. A company earning say $2/share would trade at $28/share. Higher growth companies can trade at significantly higher multiples. A private company might sell for one to four times earnings.

Exposure through the public market provides companies with visibility and a process for being taken over.

Management of publicly traded companies typically use stock for buying other companies rather than cash. It's their currency for building the business with no impact on company operations.

What to watch for

Going public offers private company investors the liquidity event to cash in. Take the April 2018 I.P.O. (initial public offering) by Spotify (SPOT). Sony, who invested in the company while it was private, was able to sell a significant portion of a large dollar investment into the market. Companies undergoing long term growth can still see their share price increase but others may wilt as initial buying becomes exhausted.

Company founders use the public markets to leverage seed capital as well as financings to increase their personal wealth. Exploration companies (oil, gold, etc.) are notorious for this as naive investors fail to recognize the facade of hype with the reality of the company's capital structure and market cycles.

Valuations for resource companies shifting from exploration to production tends to drop. Ironically, as the company generates revenues and earnings the share price may fall considerably.

Publicly traded companies may have extensive research available providing investors with an information source that private companies wouldn't have. But a sell recommendation is rare as investment dealers are unlikely to receive lucrative investment banking business from a company whose analyst has a negative outlook. Furthermore, analysts are using traditional analysis processes without incorporating the realities of the stock market.

Publicly traded companies may offer a significant amount of stock options to management, consultants and advisors. In larger companies with growth it can work but smaller company capital structures can become overwhelmed from significant overhead.

When the stock market is strong I.P.O.s tend to out perform. But when the market is weak newer companies tend to suffer from the heaviest selling.

The stock market is like a video game for many people providing them with great entertainment until they start losing, repeatedly. With a serious correction unfolding, how a portfolio is handled can make a difference that lasts for years. Here's something you can use to build your knowledge and skill to manage the unfolding of corrections in the stock market.

The chart below is not your heart rate monitor but it could be during moments of stock market anxiety. The put/call ratio is the relative volume of the purchases of equity puts to calls in the U.S. stock market. It can be a useful timing tool as spikes reveal extreme pessimism coinciding with declines in the stock market itself.

Notice how the put/call ratio is currently at .76. It's nowhere near the spike of .88 in early February during the stock market's one week "flash crash". But even then that level isn't as high as other times not only in the last five years, shown in this chart here, but throughout history.

Historically, the put/call ratio spikes to over 1.00 and typically 1.20 before stocks actually bottom out. The last time it was this high was December 28th 2015 well before the February 8th 2016 low.

Option markets reveal sentiment

There are other sentiment measures in the stock market including your own. Begin a process of establishing some kind of personal measure of your own sentiment and write it down for historical reference.

Use this for timing

Our markets research has found the number of stocks trading above certain trend lines (moving averages) has usefulness for predicting trend changes in the stock market.

During a correction the number drops, sharply, creating a low in stocks trading above the 50 day and/or the 200 day moving averages (m.a.). It reflects an increasing number of stocks entering down trends.

From the chart below you can see the market is essentially retesting the low from early February 2018. What is particularly noteworthy is how it reflects the nature of corrections. If you were watching at the time, recall the recovery following the early February flash crash in the stock market. Many believed it was a short term event and the market was back to business again but here's what matters in stocks. Power persists!

The rally through February and March featured some solid bullish action but cycles are relatively long in stocks. Big money, i.e. mutual funds and pension funds, can take many months, even years, to work through their process of buying or selling.

Stocks above 50 day moving average

Stocks above 200 day moving average

You don't have to get burned by the stock market. Try this.

Updated: Feb 3

We offer workshops and seminars online and in-class. Some are for experienced investors and others are for those beginners who are getting started in the world of investing. We explore themes important to people who want to understand the markets, seize opportunities and master the management of their portfolio. All our sessions are interesting and interactive.


Watch for the next workshop here and send your interest to info@craveinvestor.com to be put on the notification list.

Naive investors get eaten alive by the markets. But the average investor actually has an advantage over big institutional investors.

2025 Crave Investor

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